If the atmosphere is more stable that would help reduce the risk of severe storms. While wind shear is going to be very strong, widespread cloud cover and rain may keep instability values modest. I anticipate we’ll see the risk zones modified in coming updates as we get a better grasp on instability values. We do have a large geographical region under a severe weather risk Tuesday, Tuesday Night, and Wednesday morning.
We’ll talk about that as we get closer, but the western half of Texas could see wind gusts exceeding 60 MPH at times on Wednesday. We could experience a widespread, significant high wind event on Wednesday as skies clear west of a dryline and temperatures warm. That means very strong winds aloft and the potential for strong to very strong winds at the surface. Some models have it going below 980 millibars (28.95 inches of mercury). We do note that the low pressure may be one of the deepest (strongest) we’ve seen in quite a long time. Tuesday and Wednesday will be our primary period for the threat of strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. Those strong winds aloft may mix down to the surface in those storms – increasing the threat of damaging wind gusts. The intensification of the surface low pressure will result in a significant uptick in kinetic energy (winds aloft). That squall line may extend from Kansas south through much of Texas as it slowly moves east Tuesday night and into Wednesday.īy Tuesday night into Wednesday an area of low pressure in eastern Colorado to Kansas is expected to quickly intensify. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop on Tuesday across eastern New Mexico into West Texas. There is the potential for a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds in the Davis Mountains beginning Monday night. Rain chances beginning Monday night will be highest across the western half of Texas. Locally heavy rainfall may occur which won’t make the morning drive pleasant, but flooding isn’t expected. Severe weather is not expected with storms tonight or tomorrow morning, but I can’t rule out a storm producing very small hail. We’ll start off with thunderstorm chances tonight into Monday morning across Northwest Texas, Texoma, and North Texas.
Our small respite from more active weather is just about over.
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